Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed his 8,400 target to mid-2027 while retaining his Roaring 2020s outlook.
In this conversation with Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand, Ed distinguishes an earnings-led bull market from a speculative melt-up, explains why retiring baby boomers keep spending, and makes the case for AI's benefits spreading beyond the Magnificent Seven. He also weighs the return of the bond vigilantes, diesel's inflation impact, global diversification and the risks that could challenge his optimistic base case.
Topics covered:
Ed Yardeni's FEMO: fabulous earnings momentum versus fear of missing out
Why strong earnings can support stocks even as valuation multiples fall
The assumptions behind Ed Yardeni's S&P 500 target of 10,000 by 2029
Retiree wealth, consumer spending and Ed Yardeni's G-shaped economy
AI, productivity and data as a fourth factor of production
Why Ed Yardeni favors the “impressive 493” as potential AI beneficiaries
Cloud revenue, compute demand and the returns on AI capital spending
Bond vigilantes, fiscal deficits and the difference between growth-driven yields and a debt crisis
How diesel costs could feed into core inflation
Global diversification and the bond market's role in guiding Fed policy
Chapters: 00:00 Ed Yardeni's bull case and near-term caution 04:26 The Roaring 2020s and retiree spending 08:53 Technology and the productivity thesis 13:06 AI, economic growth and data as a resource 18:22 Why the economy is more than AI spending 24:10 AI returns and the impressive 493 29:48 Valuations, S&P 10,000 and rising bond yields 38:42 Government debt and demand for Treasuries 43:34 Diesel inflation and global diversification 47:41 Fed policy and signals from the bond market 51:55 Yardeni Research's process and tools 56:19 Why Ed Yardeni favors a G-shaped economy
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