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What happens if you back Over 4.5 Goals on every single football match?

No filters.

No picking the right leagues.

No looking for obviously high-scoring teams.

Just back Over 4.5 Goals every time and see what happens.

In this podcast, I test exactly that across two full years of football data.

We look at:

  •  The overall profit and loss 
  •  The strike rate 
  •  The average odds 
  •  The longest winning and losing runs 
  •  Which leagues performed best 
  •  Which leagues were absolute disasters 
  •  Whether a few simple filters could improve the results 

Over 4.5 Goals is an interesting market because the strike rate is much lower...

But the odds are much bigger.

So does that actually create an edge?

Or is blindly backing five or more goals just a very fast way to destroy your bank?

That is what the data tells us.

If you want to test your own football trading ideas before risking real money, check out the Betfair Trading Community football backtesting software.

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Twitter: @BetfairTC
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