Obviously we will work through the machinations later but lets just run through the winners and losers of the night.
The winners:
1) Opportunity
5% is hard and they did it, just. It’s a big victory and a slick campaign. I hope they are smart enough to ease in, don’t go mad, learn the ropes and be there for a good crack in 2029.
2) The pollsters
Yes there were some ropey numbers, but overall by the end of the night they were more right than wrong. They should be pleased.
3) Act
They increased their presence in Parliament, survived and thrived in our first true MMP Government.
4) NZ First
Ditto. We need to move past the idea that small players can't grow, and in growing they inevitably take votes off their major partners. Why was that a surprise to so many?
5) National
Because their electorate MP's saved the day. 42 seats is an amazing result, hence the overhang.
6) The split vote campaign
If you look at the party vote in any given electorate for National, and the electorate vote for the local MP, it's night and day. Hundreds of thousands of votes went to the MP, not the party.
7) The Maori Party
Given what they did to themselves, five seats is more than most of us would have thought. It must have been devastating for Labour.
The losers:
8) Labour
Their path remains this morning as hard, if not harder, than it was all campaign. A lot needed to go their way and chances are it hasn’t.
9) The Greens
They should be happy but they aren't, because they're not likely part of a Government. But they also believed the polls and at 16%+ the polls were never real.
10 Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, Chris Bishop
In an unusual election three very experienced heavyweights watch their party most likely head back to the Beehive without them. It's one thing to lose your job when your party loses the election, but that hasn’t happened. It's pretty much a first.
11) Turnout
Still not too sure. At 700,000 estimated specials it looked like a massive turnout, but there are only 400,000. If you take that as a percentage it may be the turnout wasn’t anything big at all.
12) MMP
Not sure if it’s a winner or not. Big Parliament, big overhang. In 30 years we are still discovering the vagaries of a system we voted twice for and yet too many still don’t get it.
Democracy aye? What a ride.
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