Super Tuesdays - Democrats Are Winning SEVEN Senate Seats… Or The Polling Industry Is BROKEN

It’s Election Day, and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza arrive at a binary: either Democrats pick up seven Senate seats tonight, or the polling industry has to be blown up and rebuilt. The final Times/Siena polls put Democrats ahead in all seven states that will decide the Senate, with only Iowa and Alaska inside a point, and the final NBC survey has Democrats up seven, independents going Democratic by 21, and Trump at 40 percent approval — his worst of either term. Their real question is whether the political class is underselling it, since every predictive metric points the same way and Chuck thinks the polling error is as likely to break toward Democrats as against them. Plus: a walk back through one deranged cycle, Chuck’s coma test for why Iowa tells the whole story, what a sweep actually means in Washington, why leading with impeachment would be the dumbest available move, and Miami at Notre Dame. The Projection, their election-night stream with Decision Desk HQ, starts at 6 p.m. Eastern.

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Timeline

00:00 Election Day, Chuck’s playlist, and one genuinely crazy midterm cycle
08:00 Liberation Day, Virginia as the forecaster, and the chart behind the collapse
14:00 The final polls: how the electorate moved, and a pollster’s own warning
20:00 Either Democrats pick up seven seats, or the polling industry is dead
28:00 Kalshi’s last coin flip, Chris Murphy, and the Iowa coma test
34:00 If there’s a wave: tariffs first, impeachment last, and can Jeffries govern?
44:00 The Projection at 6 p.m., and Catholics versus Criminals

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