One day out, Chuck Todd reacts to Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed — a stunning turn that cost Stevens her staff and, Chuck argues, likely her future in the Democratic Party. The rift escalated over a Cenk Uygur-produced ad El-Sayed disavowed, and Chuck notes the asymmetry: Ralph Norman told South Carolina Republicans to vote their conscience and got a fraction of the coverage. His broader read is that Stevens may have turned El-Sayed into a martyr, and that the establishment forfeits any “we told you so” if he loses. The rest is a full election-night field guide: what Iowa tells you about the wave, the Cuban vote in Miami-Dade, the Rio Grande Valley, Lake Erie counties in Ohio, Wichita, and why a Phil Scott loss in Vermont means Susan Collins can’t survive Maine.
Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit his four favorite midterm election upsets, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.
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Timeline:
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
01:00 “The Projection” election night livestream
03:15 Haley Stevens, El-Sayed, and the endorsement that torched a career
11:15 The Young Turks ad, Islamophobia, and Michigan’s early vote
18:30 South Carolina shifts, and Ralph Norman’s permission slip
20:30 Ranked choice voting as the real loser in Alaska
23:30 The NYT backlash and the risk of audience capture
30:15 Will the Obama-Trump voter come home? Will the Trump voter show up?
36:00 Florida: Miami-Dade, the Panhandle, and how Jolly beats Donalds
39:15 Georgia, Ohio’s Lake Erie counties, and Maine’s mid-coast
46:30 Michigan, Mississippi, Kansas, Texas, Iowa and Nebraska — what to watch
1:06:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Chuck’s 4 favorite midterm election upsets
1:08:30 1982 - Tom Bradley loses in California
1:12:15 1994 - Mario Cuomo loses reelection for his 4th term to George Pataki
1:16:00 1998 - Jesse Ventura wins Minnesota governor’s race
1:20:30 1998 - “The impeachment election”
1:26:30 Ask Chuck
1:26:45 What long term price will JD Vance pay for supporting Ramaswamy ad?
1:29:45 How would history be different if Al Gore won in 2000?
1:34:15 Do political yard signs actually accomplish anything?
1:37:00 Jamie Raskin’s potential for role as Speaker of the House?
1:40:30 Are senior military leaders prepared for a constitutional crisis?
1:43:00 Thoughts on Trump covering diversity mural before a rally?
1:49:00 Will all the swing states go one way in 2026 like they did in 2024?
1:52:15 What does GOP ceding airwaves in DC mean?
1:55:00 College football recap
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