Full Episode - Trump Is The Biggest Wildcard Of The 2026 Midterms + The Democratic Party's Credibility Problem — And How to Fix It

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. 

Then, Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook, argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court.

The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. 

Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections

06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months

07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day

08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day

09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans

10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House

11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans

12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats

14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map

14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate

16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate

17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle

18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago

18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year

19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas

21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats

21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?

22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat

24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against

26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable

27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent

29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not

30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war

31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval

32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party

34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance

35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014

36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans

37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles

37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval

38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers

39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms

40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it

42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports

43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten

44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does

46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives

46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools

47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement

48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this

49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down

50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges

51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed

53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation

53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it

54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players

55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill

57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere

58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut

59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025

59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak

1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK

1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price

1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation

1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal

1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi

1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy

1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC

1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far

1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?

1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder

1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries

1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club

1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate

1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries

01:14:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems

01:16:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration

01:17:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed

01:19:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late

01:20:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long

01:20:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past

01:21:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him

01:22:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation

01:23:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory

01:25:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition

01:27:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism

01:29:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism

01:30:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden

01:31:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse

01:32:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority

01:35:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people

01:36:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?

01:36:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues

01:38:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power

01:39:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy

01:41:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them

01:41:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America

01:43:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax

01:44:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year

01:44:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional

01:45:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea

01:47:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility

01:49:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better

01:51:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump

01:52:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left

01:53:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states

01:54:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable

01:56:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue

01:57:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states

01:59:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same

02:00:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24

02:01:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats

02:03:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?

02:03:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living

02:04:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated

02:05:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much

02:06:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable

02:09:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose

02:10:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?

02:11:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine

02:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties

02:14:00 #5 Oregon

02:15:00 #4 Ohio

02:16:15 #3 Wisconsin

02:18:15 #2 Kansas

02:19:00 #1 Iowa

02:20:00 Ask Chuck

02:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair

02:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?

02:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?

02:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?

02:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?

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