With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process.
Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections
06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months
07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day
08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day
09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans
10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House
11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans
12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats
14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map
14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate
16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate
17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle
18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago
18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year
19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas
21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats
21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?
22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat
24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against
26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable
27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent
29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not
30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war
31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval
32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party
34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance
35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014
36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans
37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles
37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval
38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers
39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms
40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it
42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports
43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten
44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does
46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives
46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools
47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement
48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this
49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down
50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges
51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed
53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation
53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it
54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players
55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill
57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere
58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut
59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025
59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak
1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK
1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price
1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation
1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal
1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi
1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy
1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC
1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far
1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?
1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder
1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries
1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club
1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate
1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries
01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties
01:14:00 #5 Oregon
01:15:00 #4 Ohio
01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin
01:18:15 #2 Kansas
01:19:00 #1 Iowa
01:20:00 Ask Chuck
01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair
01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?
01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?
01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?
01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?
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