David Bahnsen discusses whether the U.S. has shifted from the 1990–2020 disinflation era to a higher structural inflation range, engaging Dr. Lacy Hunt’s view that the prior 1.5–2.5% equilibrium may have broken toward 3.5–5% as globalization wanes. Bahnsen argues globalization aided disinflation but wasn’t the sole driver, emphasizing Hunt’s framework that rising government debt lowers money velocity, crowds out productive investment, and suppresses long-term growth. He questions whether deglobalization is truly structural, citing industrial-policy efforts as often half-hearted and inconsistently enforced. Turning to AI, he notes build-out is capital- and energy-intensive and can be temporarily inflationary, but sees two longer-run outcomes that both lean disinflationary: a favorable productivity-driven supply shock, or a recessionary bust if AI disappoints. He concludes the dominant backdrop remains excess government debt and spending depressing growth.
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