Fastest Four: September Stock Trends Are Not Good

Every September since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a negative return. Here's why — and what history says to do about it.

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September is the only month with a negative average return across the last 5, 10, and 20 years, and since 1950 (-0.6%). LPL Research calls this seasonality — a mix of tax-related selling, mutual fund fiscal year-ends, corporate buyback windows, and summer liquidity lulls that recur every year. In a midterm election year — like this one — the average drops further, to -0.8% since 1950. But October and November have historically bounced back hard: +3.0% and +2.7% on average. Selling out of fear risks missing that recovery entirely. If you're feeling nervous about market swings this month, this is worth a conversation before you make a portfolio decision based on the calendar.