Today we talk gold's false start and the housing market fall as we focus on growing risks and uncertainty in the markets. The Fed takes a more hawkish stance on inflation, signaling that interest rates could stay higher for longer while offering little guidance on future policy. We cover the impact of the recent U.S.-Canada tariffs, rising Treasury yields, the $40 trillion national debt, housing-market weakness, rising foreclosures, and the potential risks facing commercial real estate and regional banks. We also examine the current going ons of gold, silver, and Bitcoin as recent gains could be a false start. As always, emphasize caution, diversification, and maintain a long-term perspective rather than reacting to short-term market moves.

We discuss... 

  • The Fed's hawkish stance on inflation is raising expectations for higher interest rates and a longer period of restrictive monetary policy.
  • The escalating U.S.-Canada tariff dispute is creating additional economic uncertainty and increasing concerns about inflation and slower growth.
  • Treasury yields and government debt remain major concerns as the U.S. national debt surpasses $40 trillion and interest costs continue to climb.
  • The housing market is showing signs of weakness, including elevated inventory, declining new-home sales, rising foreclosures, and worsening affordability.
  • Higher mortgage rates and insurance costs are making it increasingly difficult for homeowners to access liquidity from their real estate holdings.
  • Commercial real estate faces significant refinancing risks as more than $1 trillion in debt is scheduled to mature while borrowing costs remain elevated.
  • Weakening employment data and downward revisions to job growth suggest the labor market may be slowing more than headline figures indicate.
  • Gold, silver, and Bitcoin have performed strongly recently, but the hosts believe investors should remain cautious about chasing the rally.
  • Historical data shows that midterm election years have frequently experienced significant market drawdowns after August.
  • Market timing requires making two decisions, when to sell and when to buy back, and both are difficult to get right.
  • Global markets have produced widely different returns, reinforcing the potential benefits of looking beyond the S&P 500 for diversification.
  • Hot money has been rotating between Bitcoin, precious metals, industrials, energy, and semiconductors throughout the year rather than staying concentrated in one asset.

 

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the full show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/golds-false-start-847 

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