The AI stock market bubble is finally being talked about — but is it really a bubble? And if it is, how does it compare to the biggest bubbles in the last 200 years of financial history?
In this episode, Chris Miles breaks down a Bloomberg-referenced study of 51 major innovations from 1825 to 2000 — and reveals that 37 of them (roughly 73%) created a market bubble. From steam engines and ballpoint pens to radios, automobiles, and the 1990s dot-com boom, the pattern is remarkably consistent: the innovation is usually real, but the market overpays for it.
The NASDAQ 100 is up over 640% in the last 10 years, driven almost entirely by AI-related tech. Chris compares today's AI trade to:
• The Roaring 20s bubble (autos, airplanes, radio, motion pictures)
• The 1950s post-war innovation boom (ballpoint pens, microwaves, magnetic tape)
• Japan's 1980s "unstoppable economy" bubble
• The 1998–2000 dot-com bubble (Nasdaq +570% in 24 months)
The key lesson from 1999: "The mistake was not believing in the internet. The mistake was believing every internet stock could become the internet." The same warning applies today — every company slapping ".AI" on its name is not a winner.
What you'll learn in this episode:
- Why 73% of major innovations create market bubbles (2018 research paper)
- How mania, margin debt, and "dumb money" create the crash — not the technology
- Why the AI bubble likely holds until after the 2026 midterm elections
- Why Social Security's 2028 deadline and $40 trillion in national debt are ticking
- Why real assets and predictable cash flow beat stock market guessing
- How to protect your money BEFORE the bubble pops
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📚 Sources & references:
• Bloomberg / Barclays research — "History's Weirdest Bubbles Have a Message for the AI Trade"
• 2018 academic study — 51 major innovations from 1825 to 2000 (73% bubble rate)
• NASDAQ 100 10-year total return data
• NASDAQ dot-com peak: March 2000 (+570% Feb 1998 – Feb 2000)
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