What is Risk?

Don and Tom explore the difference between smart risk and dumb risk in investing, sparked by new survey data showing younger investors increasingly believe they must take big risks to achieve their financial goals. They discuss the rise in stock trading, options speculation, and meme-stock behavior, contrasting those activities with evidence-based risks such as broad stock market investing, factor tilts, and maintaining efficient use of cash. They also answer a listener question from a recently retired investor concerned about market valuations and inflation, discussing small-value tilts, bond allocations, and the role of TIPS. Along the way, they wander into Roman and Han Dynasty history, retirement boredom, Don’s Civil War novel, podcast economics, and the launch of the newly redesigned Talking Real Money website.

0:05 Podcasting economics, removing ads, and the realities of making money from podcasts
2:34 Why investors believe they need to take bigger risks to reach financial goals
4:26 The growth of indexing and the shift away from active investing
4:59 FINRA survey shows younger investors embracing options and speculative trading
6:25 Smart risk versus dumb risk and why experience changes risk perception
7:04 Options, IPOs, hot stocks, crypto, and other forms of speculative risk
8:07 Research on options trading success rates and why most traders lose money
8:48 Individual stocks, market timing, and sector bets that historically have not paid off
10:47 Risks that may be worth taking, including all-stock portfolios for younger investors
11:22 The long-term case for owning the global economy through diversified stock funds
11:55 Small-cap, value, profitability, and momentum factor tilts
12:37 The hidden cost of idle cash and improving returns through better cash management
13:42 Why inflation is guaranteed to beat most traditional bank savings accounts
14:59 Roman and Han Dynasty history and what it says about long-term economic growth
15:42 The new Talking Real Money website and easier ways to submit questions
17:34 Listener question from a 58-year-old retiree using a Boglehead four-fund portfolio
19:15 Whether adding a small-value tilt makes sense in retirement
20:41 Thoughts on bond funds, TIPS, and inflation protection
22:02 Short-term Treasury ETFs versus high-yield savings accounts
23:11 Avoiding emotional reactions to market valuations
24:03 Retirement longevity risk and planning for a potentially decades-long retirement
24:52 Don discusses researching and writing The Line Uncrossed
27:32 Meet-an-Advisor invitation and how the free portfolio review process works

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