Agustin Lebron: Ex-Jane Street Trader & Researcher on Trading, AI, & Finding Edge

Former Jane Street quantitative trader and researcher Agustin Lebron joins Capital Thesis for a conversation on quantitative trading, artificial intelligence, market making, and how traders find edge in increasingly competitive markets.Agustin Lebron spent more than six years at Jane Street, where he worked as a quantitative trader and researcher across equities, futures, commodities, and options. He is also the author of *The Laws of Trading*, a book exploring decision-making, risk, and uncertainty through the lens of markets and trading. Today, Agustin is a Senior Research Scientist at EquiLibre Technologies, where he works at the intersection of artificial intelligence and financial markets, applying reinforcement learning to algorithmic trading.In this conversation, Agustin shares his journey into quantitative finance and what he learned during his years at Jane Street. We discuss how quantitative trading firms operate, how market makers manage risk, where trading edge comes from, and why technological and capital requirements have made it increasingly difficult for smaller firms to compete.We also explore the impact of artificial intelligence on trading and financial markets, whether AI could level the playing field or further strengthen the largest quantitative firms, and how increasingly automated and efficient markets are changing where edge can be found. Finally, Agustin discusses leverage, risk management, reinforcement learning in markets, the growing consolidation of quantitative trading firms, and the lessons from his career that shaped the way he thinks about markets and decision-making.00:00 Intro01:20 From Engineering to Jane Street03:21 Simulations vs. Real-World Trading05:50 AI, Infrastructure & Trading Consolidation08:34 Where Can Traders Still Find Edge?10:27 Leverage, Retail Trading & Risk Management13:42 AI and the Future of Market Efficiency16:04 Prediction Markets & the Gamblification of Trading18:35 Finding Edge in Gambling and Speculation19:26 Will AI Make Money Obsolete?22:33 Why AI’s Economic Impact May Take Decades25:02 Why Prop Firms Are Replacing Investment Banks27:20 The Laws of Trading & Lessons from Jane Street29:21 Poker, Engineering & Quantitative Trading32:49 Reinforcement Learning in Financial Markets34:46 Career Advice: Avoid the Status Game38:35 Passion, Quant Finance & Choosing the Right Career40:45 What Agustin Looks for in Candidates43:31 Closing Agustin Lebron’s book, *The Laws of Trading: A Trader’s Guide to Better Decision-Making for Everyone*:⁠https://www.amazon.com.⁠..Disclaimer: The content in this video is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The views and opinions expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Capital Thesis Podcast. Nothing discussed should be considered a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or investment. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Capital Thesis Podcast and its guests are not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of this content.