Will Chamberlain talks with Daniel Di Martino about Trump's Venezuela endgame after the capture of Nicolás Maduro, why the old regime can still run Caracas under Delcy Rodríguez, and what it would take to force a real exit. The conversation also digs into Cuba's decades living off Venezuelan oil, the Cartel of the Suns, María Corina Machado's election prospects, the U.S.–Venezuela oil deal, and whether Havana is next.
In this episode:
Di Martino explains how Chávez turned Latin America's richest country into its poorest after Venezuelans voted themselves into socialism
He walks through Venezuela's fall from 1950s top-tier GDP per capita to an roughly 80 percent economic collapse
He argues the regime became a drug cartel once oil loot dried up, with diplomatic passports moving cocaine into the United States
He says Trump's Delta Force arrest of Maduro solved the credibility problem Maduro thought was a bluff
He maps Cuba's Special Period and how Caracas sent free oil that Havana resold through dark fleets
He describes Cuban intelligence embeds in the Venezuelan military as the price of that subsidy
He says Delcy Rodríguez is less popular than Maduro and cannot staff a competent central bank while she remains in power
He explains the colectivos as a Chavista paramilitary used to crush street protests
He argues top leaders cannot safely stay in Venezuela even with amnesty, because the public will kill them
He says only Trump can force exile deals — Qatar, Turkey, elsewhere — because Cuba is next and cannot be the safe house
He says María Corina Machado is the only figure who wins a free Venezuelan election in a landslide
He praises the oil deal's terms but warns U.S. government ownership and a future Democratic administration put long-horizon investment at risk
He backs striking Tren de Aragua leadership and drug boats when identification is solid
He closes that Venezuela was free and prosperous before socialism — and America should not be oblivious to that threat
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/counterweight-with-will-chamberlain/id6803321469
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/18jtv7U8cB0IW82qM9xoK8
Daniel Di Martino: Manhattan Institute · @DanielDiMartino
Will Chamberlain: @willchamberlain
Instagram / TikTok: @counterweightpod
0:00 Cold open — Cuba is next
1:11 Host intro
2:27 Growing up under Chávez
4:43 The deepest economic collapse on record
5:51 First Trump term and recognizing Guaidó
9:08 The Cartel of the Suns
12:19 Maduro in U.S. custody
13:24 Cuba's Special Period and free Venezuelan oil
18:38 Why a blockade alone will not topple Havana
20:38 Delcy Rodríguez's unpopularity
23:30 The colectivos
25:26 Amnesty, exile, and forcing the regime out
27:44 Diosdado Cabello
29:19 María Corina Machado
31:35 The oil deal and the 2028 risk
34:09 Tren de Aragua and the drug boats
37:57 Earthquakes and rebuilding
43:11 Venezuela as a warning for America
