With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 16-year highs at 5.20%, is this the return to historical normal—or the start of a market break?


Chapters

00:00 - Introduction & Market Overview

03:01 - Analyzing the Week's Bond Market Frenzy

07:09 - Shifts in FOMC Rate Expectations

08:27 - Economic Growth and Potential GDP

13:30 - Historical Context: 5,000 Years of Interest Rates

17:04 - Economic Resilience vs. Market Fears

18:38 - Drivers of Yields: Growth, Energy, Policy, and Deficits

23:03 - The Fed's Dilemma Heading into October

26:14 - Bond Math and Are Yields Near a Peak?

29:56 - Closing Question: Does the Fed Lead or Follow the Market?


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