This episode brings together two experts to discuss recent second-round presidential elections in Peru and Colombia: Jo-Marie Burt, a senior fellow at WOLA and professor at George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, and a leading expert on Peru; and Gimena Sánchez-Garzoli, WOLA's Director for the Andes, who maintains close contact with Colombian civil society.
Both elections produced razor-thin margins, and both delivered victories to right-wing, populist candidates promising crackdowns on crime and a hard line against their political adversaries. In Peru, Keiko Fujimori won the presidency on her fourth attempt, while in Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly defeated left-leaning Iván Cepeda.
Burt describes Fujimori's ascent as the culmination of years spent consolidating control over Peru's key institutions, like Congress, the constitutional tribunal, and the attorney general's office. She characterizes Fujimori as "singularly motivated, singularly ambitious, and singularly ruthless," shaped by her upbringing under her father Alberto Fujimori's authoritarian government. Burt warns that Fujimori is driven by a desire for revenge against those who helped prosecute and imprison her father, including journalists like Gustavo Gorriti, human rights lawyers, prosecutors, and judges. She details a legislative landscape already tilted toward impunity—amnesty laws shielding police and military, and restrictions crippling NGOs' ability to represent victims. Burt argues Peru has drifted toward a hybrid or even authoritarian regime.
Sánchez-Garzoli paints a tense picture in Colombia, where outgoing President Gustavo Petro has refused to recognize the election results, alleging fraud and foreign interference despite institutional findings to the contrary. She notes intervention by the Trump administration and U.S. lawmakers. With the transition suspended and Petro calling supporters into the streets, while armed groups reposition, Sánchez-Garzoli warns of a real risk of political violence.
She outlines de la Espriella's "iron fist" agenda: mega-prisons modeled on El Salvador's Nayib Bukele, reviving the controversial ESMAD riot police, and a "special urban defense bloc" that she fears could blur the line between state security and paramilitary activity, echoing Colombia's dark history. "Colombia can't return to the belief that problems can be solved through bullets," she says, paraphrasing Colombian human rights defender Leyner Palacios.
The conversation explores the deeper social fractures driving these results: in Peru, divisions of race, class, and region between Lima and the neglected Andean provinces, alongside a "frozen" collective memory of the 1980s-90s internal armed conflict manipulated to smear the left as communist. In Colombia, urban-rural divides also shape perceptions of security and the peace process.
Both guests anticipate closer alignment with Washington, though they distinguish ideological affinity from generous funding. Sánchez-Garzoli expects a "total reset" in U.S.-Colombia relations, possible joint operations, and migration cooperation including reports of a plan to facilitate deportations of Colombian asylum seekers. Burt notes U.S. concern over China's growing influence in Peru.
Despite the grim outlook, both find grains of hope: in Peru, a tentative opposition alliance and a still-vibrant regional civil society; in Colombia, strong institutions, a diverse Congress, and a resilient press and civil society. The episode closes with a reflection that both presidents-elect, lacking strong bases, face the "Milei challenge" of governing without a coalition.
