688. When Is a Bet Not a Bet?

That’s the question at the heart of a battle between Kalshi and state gambling regulators. As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them. (Part two of a two-part series.) 

• SOURCES:
  • Gary Gensler, former chair of the S.E.C. and the C.F.T.C.
  • Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.
  • Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.
  • Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.

• RESOURCES:
  • "Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?" by Robin Hanson (Journal of Political Philosophy, 2013).

• EXTRAS:
  • "Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026).
  • "He Helped Clean Up the Last Crash. Does He See Another One Coming?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026).
  • "The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).

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