DHUnplugged #813: Fear and Greed

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Starting off with Fear and Greed
- Check this out: FEAR AND GREED INDICATOR

CPI Thoughts
- July CPI is expected to ease to 3.4% from a year earlier, with core inflation forecast near 2.5%.
- The probability of a September Fed rate increase has moved back toward 48% as oil rebounded and several policymakers continued to emphasize inflation risks.
- A soft reading would support bonds, technology and precious metals. A hot reading would revive stagflation concerns by combining weaker hiring with renewed price pressure.

Tariffs Return Under New Authority
- New tariffs of 10% to 12.5% cover imports from 60 trading partners.
- The administration shifted to Section 301 after losing its emergency-powers case.
- Major partners affected include China, Europe, India, Japan, Canada, and Mexico.
- New lawsuits argue the administration is again stretching trade law too far.
- 25 States are suing on this ....

Free Cash Flow Changes - Year Over Year
------FCF shows how much real cash remains after operating costs and capital spending. Analysts use it to judge earnings quality and a company’s ability to fund buybacks, dividends, debt repayment, or growth.
- Apple: up about $7.5 billion, or 31%.
- Microsoft: down about $6.0 billion, or 23%.
- Meta: down about $7.8 billion, or 91%.
- Amazon: deteriorated about $25.8 billion, from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion.
- Alphabet: down $11.2 billion, swinging from positive $5.3 billion to negative $5.9 billion.
- Tesla: down $1.24 billion, swinging from positive $146 million to negative $1.09 billion.
- Intel: adjusted free cash flow worsened by $7.37 billion, from negative $1.05 billion to negative $8.42 billion.
- Nvidia: up $22.4 billion, or 86%, from $26.1 billion to $48.6 billion.

Jobs Report - Labor Market Cracks
- July payrolls fell 23,000 versus expectations for about 80,000 gains.
- May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs.
- Unemployment fell to 4.1%, but labor-force participation dropped to 61.4%.
- Weak report pushed yields and the dollar lower.

China Trade - Export Machine Keeps Running
- July exports jumped 23.9% year over year; imports rose 27.5%.
- China posted another huge $112.5 billion trade surplus.
- Semiconductor and high-tech exports were major growth drivers.

SoftBank - Intel Saves the Quarter
- SoftBank posted about $2.2 billion in quarterly profit, well above expectations.
- A large gain on its Intel investment was a major driver.
- ByteDance also added investment gains.
- SoftBank continues aggressively funding AI and OpenAI-related investments. (Masayoshi Son will never stop pumping)

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