On this episode of The Futures Rundown, host Mark Longo welcomes back Brett Friedman of Winhall Risk Analytics and OptionMetrics for a deep dive into one of the strangest stories in the futures markets: crude oil's surprisingly underwhelming response to a major geopolitical conflict.

With dire supply warnings and plenty of doom-and-gloom predictions, many expected crude to explode higher. Instead, the rally has repeatedly struggled to live up to the hype. Brett compares the current environment with previous oil-market disruptions, including the historic volatility of 2020, and explains why this latest episode hasn't come close to matching those extremes.

We also discuss:

  • Why crude oil hasn't behaved the way many fundamental analysts expected
  • The unusual volatility picture in WTI
  • What's driving heating oil and gasoline
  • Why gold and silver have fallen out of the market spotlight
  • The return of the AI trade and the "most hated" equity rally
  • What's happening in rates and the Fed-watching game
  • Natural gas and the strange predictability of seasonal trading
  • The steepening VIX futures curve
  • Why palladium may have attracted the wrong crowd
  • Whether traders are using the VIX the wrong way
  • And much more

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