Bonds are screaming.
Doug Campbell connects surging Treasury yields to Iran, inflation and the AI investment boom—and explains why another Fed hike may still be underpriced.
Trump goes all-in on AI.
The White House remains firmly pro-growth on artificial intelligence, opening trades around regulation, AI safety legislation and even potential government investment in the sector.
Are the Ohio polls real?
Jim Swift breaks down why Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton are competitive, how tariffs and data centers are hurting Republicans, and which Ohio House seats could actually flip.
Stop betting like you know your edge.
Statistician Harry Crane explains why traders should size positions conservatively, test strategies with real money and focus on surviving when their assumptions are wrong.
Bond markets are moving, traders are backing away from an October Fed hike, and Trump has some new thoughts about AI. Alex Keeney and Doug Campbell break down what the bond selloff means for prediction markets, whether AI is helping hold up the economy, the latest U.S.–China AI trades, and some increasingly strange markets around Trump’s second term.
Then Jim Swift joins Eventual to go deep on Ohio. We look at Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Amy Acton, the Senate fight involving Sherrod Brown, and some surprisingly competitive House races in OH-01, OH-07 and OH-09. Are Democrats genuinely gaining ground in Ohio — or are traders about to relearn the Midwest polling lesson?
Finally, Harry Crane joins to level up your prediction-market trading. We start with bet sizing for beginners, move into the Kelly Criterion, and ask how aggressive serious traders should really be when they believe they have an edge. Harry also weighs in on the biggest mistakes traders make and what he’s seeing in the 2026 midterm markets.
Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.
Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.
If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.
The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.
For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
