Has Putin trumped Trump?

Trump’s Russian diesel deal, pressuring Ukraine & sanctioning the ICC (International Criminal Court): is this Putin’s best week in years? And as EU leaders clash on budget and migration, are they pulling apart just when they need to stand together? An EU President and an American comedian untangle this week’s continental rift. TRUMP’S DIESEL DEAL WITH PUTIN - On 9 October, Trump announced a temporary US Treasury licence allowing Russian diesel supplies to reach US and global markets. After Trump declared an energy ceasefire on 11 October, Russia continued bombing Ukrainian power stations while Ukraine paused strikes on Russian energy for three days. Ukraine resumed attacks on 15 October; Trump called this “a disgrace”. INTELLIGENCE, WEAPONS & STARSHIELD - US envoys reportedly warned Ukraine it could lose US intelligence and US weapons purchased by European allies unless it stopped striking Russian refineries (Axios, CNN). The administration says intelligence sharing continues. StarShield was speed-restricted, not switched off. Elon Musk says the US military and ultimately the President determine the restrictions. On 16 October, Zelensky said full-speed service had not been restored. RUSSIA’S FROZEN ASSETS - The Financial Times reported that US envoys proposed transferring some frozen Russian sovereign assets into a Washington-overseen vehicle. European officials rejected the idea. Around €260 billion was frozen in 2022, mostly in the EU; releasing it would require agreement from all 27 member states. EUROPE’S RESPONSE - On 12 October, the EU sanctioned 1,569 Russian arms-industry companies and executives. On 16 October, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said sanctions would remain until Russia stops the war, with a 22nd package in preparation. However, unity is fragile: Bulgaria’s prime minister welcomed measures to lower fuel prices, while Slovakia is reviving its cooperation commission with Russia, due to meet in Moscow on 25 November. KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE - Guilfoyle resigned at the White House’s request on 13 October. The State Department inspector general is investigating allegations surrounding her. The Daily Mail, citing unnamed administration insiders, reported that she kept a “burn book” on the Trump family. Guilfoyle said her respect for Trump and Secretary of State Rubio remained “unwavering”. A US president can issue a pardon before charges or conviction. THE ICC - US sanctions targeting the ICC as an institution were announced on 9 October and will take effect after a six-month delay. Former ICC judge Navi Pillay was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The ICC can prosecute crimes committed on the territory of its member states, regardless of who commits them. MIGRATION & SCHENGEN - Following talks at this week’s summit, Italy extended its checks by seven days, aligning them with Spain’s, which expire on 22 October. Tighter EU visa rules for Russians could pass by qualified majority. France, Italy and Spain issued nearly three-quarters of the 620,000-plus Schengen visas granted to Russians in 2025. FROG WATCH - No one has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack disrupting refrigeration at around 700 French supermarkets on 11–12 October. Bulgaria is investigating arson at Starlink antennas near Sofia, with no charges announced. The cargo ship HS Dignity sank off Bulgaria on 13 October; the search for 11 missing crew has been called off, and the prime minister has not formally linked the incident to the arson. A man charged over an alleged plot against Poland’s Donald Tusk denies the allegations; no foreign link has been established. CHINA, TRADE & GREENLAND - On 9 October, the EU and China announced an understanding on hybrid-car trade. Greenland has issued no new oil and gas licences since 2021, while Denmark says September’s security deal gives US investors no preferential access. CANADA - Claim that US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick threatened to send US troops into Canada is included in Chrystia Freeland’s new book ‘Unreliable Boyfriend’. Lutnick has no military authority and has not responded publicly. Chapters

00:00:00 This week's Continental Rift 00:01:17 The Rifty Backstory 00:03:24 Trump's diesel deal with Putin 00:07:47 Miami: Intelligence threats and Russia's frozen assets 00:10:41 Europe stunned, and split 00:12:00 Guilfoyle resigns as US Ambassador to Greece 00:14:10 US sanctions the International Criminal Court 00:18:46 EU summit: Meloni v Sanchez on migration 00:22:18 Sanchez's election prospects 00:23:11 Visas for Russians and the future of Schengen 00:24:18 Frog Watch: seven days 00:27:06 China's hybrid cars and trade surplus with Europe 00:29:19 Greenland and Canada closer to Europe

CREDITS Editor Conan Roberts Animation & Design Roland Seer - Tartu Multifilm @rolandseer Music by Paabel @paabeltheband (Estonian folk-fusion) Producer Lucy Antonatos © Fresh Lens Film Sàrl 2026 all rights reserved