What happens to your pension when there is barely one worker left per retiree? Why does a demographer say the best money decision you can make in your thirties is having a child? And why does he think the next great crisis will be a bond crisis?
Paul Morland is the demographer behind No One Left. His next book, Bust: The Economics of Population Decline, is out in November.
He walks Poppy through the economics of a shrinking population, a story usually argued as culture and never costed as money, and what it means for your tax bill and the state that promised to look after you.
In this episode:
◼️ How a low birth rate turns 100 people into 40, then into 16, inside two generations
◼️ What an ageing country does to your wages, your savings and your tax bill
◼️ Japan as the preview, going from 8 or 9 workers supporting each retiree to barely one
◼️ Why Paul thinks the next crash will come from governments that cannot pay their bills
◼️ Why he calls the state a Ponzi scheme once the population pyramid inverts, and what he thinks happens when it can no longer meet its promises
◼️ Why he says not to count on a state pension, and what he tells anyone in their thirties to do instead
◼️ Why you cannot fix a worker shortage by sending half the workers home
◼️ What happens to birth rates when men pick up more of the housework
◼️ The changes employers could make tomorrow, starting with why offices have gyms and no nurseries
◼️ How the tax system could pay mothers back for the pension years they lose
◼️ Why he does not believe AI or robots will be looking after us in old age
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