The S&P is 2% off all-time highs — so why are Meta, Oracle, Broadcom, Micron and most of the AI leaders ALREADY in bear markets?Matt Caruso and Jason break down what's really going on beneath a "calm" market: a bond market under pressure in every major country at once, credit spreads priced for perfection, a Treasury Secretary who suddenly won't stay off TV, and a tape that's telling you exactly when NOT to press. Plus a rare COT flip in the NASDAQ, the El Niño trades (sugar, cotton, corn) getting dangerously crowded, why Bitcoin is the only thing working, and what Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole message means for the Fed.⏱ TIMESTAMPS00:00 Late-summer chop — markets biased to the downside02:49 The crowded 30-year bond trade (why COT alone isn't enough)05:00 It's global: Japan, Germany, UK, Canada yields all breaking out06:26 AI capex is now DEBT-fueled — why bonds ARE the AI trade09:29 "It'll make '08 look like a day in the park"11:42 Is Bessent panicking? The election-year parallel to 200813:15 High beta must lead — and the leaders are in bear markets15:06 Bitcoin: the only thing rallying15:35 Market internals: highs vs. lows show a stalled, defensive tape21:15 The blown-up hedge fund's stocks — 25% now at new lows24:36 The Barron's cover says "keep dancing" (contrarian alarm?)26:33 Fading El Niño: sugar, cotton & corn getting crowded31:02 Rare COT flip in the NASDAQ — specs are buying the dip33:33 NVIDIA's $650B revenue path vs. an awful tape35:56 IPO froth returns: Anthropic, OpenAI & bubble signs37:48 The 2000 playbook: indices at highs while leaders crash40:10 Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole: humility returns to the Fed44:31 Bottom line: it all comes down to the bond marketIf you got value from this, do the algo thing — hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBE so you don't miss next week's episode.This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.#stockmarket #bondmarket #aistocks #investing #trading #bitcoin
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