Treasury yields are climbing—and staying above 4.8% could trigger major trouble for markets. This level, hit in January 2025, signals that fiscal woes are now outweighing efforts to control borrowing costs. Despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s attempts to calm nerves, talk isn’t cutting it when the U.S. debt hits $40 trillion and corporate borrowing rivals government needs. With $8.4 trillion of Treasury debt maturing this year—and record corporate bond issuance looming—investors are demanding higher returns globally. Even short-term dips won’t fix the long-term problem: without serious fiscal reform, rising yields look set to persist.
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