Oracle’s stock is down 64% in ten months, but its cloud AI division is exploding with 93% growth and a $638 billion backlog—85 billion added last quarter. Giants like Nvidia, Meta, and SpaceX are leasing power, and the stock looks cheap historically. Yet, Oracle’s debt is sky-high at $130 billion, pushing its debt-to-equity ratio above rivals like Amazon and Microsoft. Negative free cash flow and record-high debt insurance costs signal market concerns. A staggering $300 billion of that backlog is tied to OpenAI, whose own ballooning costs and delayed IPO are fueling uncertainty. The bottom line: Oracle’s future hinges on OpenAI’s ability to pay—making this a high-stakes, high-risk bet.
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