The Fed’s rate decision this week is a tightrope walk: inflation’s cooling hints at holding steady, but surging oil prices and AI-driven demand fuel fears of a rebound. Former officials call it a 50-50 call, while bond markets send mixed signals—yields hint at a hike, futures lean toward holding. Debate rages over whether current rates are restrictive enough to tame inflation, with some pushing for action amid global shocks, others citing falling core inflation as proof the economy can handle patience—with a possible cut later in the year if oil stays high.

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