The stock market’s been cruising up this year, but a historic warning light is flashing: the CAPE ratio is over 40 — a level only seen twice before, both times followed by major crashes. History says the S&P 500 hasn’t posted a positive three-year return after hitting this mark, and average drops have hit 30%. Yet, AI’s explosive growth could rewrite the script, fueling profits faster than the internet ever did. Wall Street remains bullish, forecasting a 22% S&P 500 surge next year — but with history and hype clashing, investors are staring at a risky crossroads.

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