This week Debs and Graham take on the football field, the valuation summary page that goes into almost every investment banking pitch book.
Claude Opus 5.5 built one for Apple, covering trading comps, precedent transactions, a DCF, a DCF with synergies, an LBO analysis and the 52-week trading range, with the supporting analysis behind each bar.
The chart raises the question the episode turns on. Apple's share price of $341, at the top of its 52-week range, sits above every methodology on the page.
Debs reads that as one of two things: either Apple is expensive or these methods struggle with a company of Apple's size. There is no precedent transaction anywhere near Apple's scale, the deals Claude suggested are all well under $100bn, and Apple trades at roughly 30x EBITDA, about double most of its big tech peers.
Graham works through each methodology from his M&A analyst years: why the DCF lives or dies on its terminal value, why a serious Apple forecast would build revenue up segment by segment and why an LBO of Apple doesn't belong on the page at all.
Timestamps:
00:00 — This week: the football field 01:31 — Why clients want every methodology 05:13 — Where the skill is 07:43 — Building the story 08:58 — Scrubbing comps 10:56 — Valuation in equity research 11:27 — Claude's football field for Apple 15:20 — A share price above every methodology 18:21 — Inside the DCF 20:56 — Trading comps and Apple's 30x multiple 24:07 — Precedent transactions 26:59 — DCF with synergies 28:43 — The LBO 30:35 — Tailoring the page to the buyer 32:44 — Wrap-up 34:07 — End
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