Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate relief traders are betting on never arrives?

On this month's Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect three perspectives on the market. Andy Constan explains why stronger growth and debt supply can push yields higher without signaling a bond crisis. Brent Kochuba examines options flows that suggest traders are still leaning toward a rebound. Eric Pachman traces the path from refinery constraints and diesel shortages to freight costs and consumer inflation. Jack and Matt close with the investment implications of AI spending, efficiency and adoption.

Topics covered:

  • Andy Constan on growth, AI capital spending and the supply of debt
  • Why Andy Constan sees more attractive bonds without calling for a recession
  • How higher yields can constrain stock returns even when growth remains strong
  • Brent Kochuba on bond volatility, calm equities and bets on falling yields
  • Why Brent Kochuba is watching both upside surprises and downside risk
  • Eric Pachman on crack spreads and why cheaper crude may not mean cheaper fuel
  • How diesel prices can flow through freight bills into CPI
  • Eric Pachman on wage inequality and what national averages miss
  • AI spending, productivity and the difference between slower growth and contraction
  • The practical obstacles to bringing AI agents into everyday life

Chapters:
00:00 Rising yields and the outlook for stocks
05:26 Andy Constan: Growth, debt supply and higher yields
12:01 Why bonds look more attractive after the selloff
18:33 Brent Kochuba: Options flows and bets on rate relief
23:21 Equity complacency and risks in both directions
31:12 Eric Pachman: Diesel shortages, crack spreads and inflation
40:06 Wage inequality and the limits of average inflation
44:40 AI capital spending, productivity and investment returns
50:34 AI adoption, automation and everyday obstacles

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co

No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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