Axios and CNN say the US is sneaking 15 to 20 tankers a night through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude hit $93 the same day. Both things can't be true, and the price is the one that doesn't lie.
Matt and CJ work through the Hormuz numbers, why a ship count is the wrong metric, and how Trump is using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to hold down the futures price while the salt caverns storing it approach the level where they stop being structurally sound.
China has been draining its own reserve to keep global prices from going higher, and Trump responded by threatening sanctions on anyone who trades with Iran. Beijing's answer was a meme.
Then the story that should have been a scandal: on July 8, Israeli intelligence told Trump that Iran planned to shoot down Air Force One.
The CIA assessed the threat as low credibility. Trump believed Israel, hid in a food service cart, and boarded a nondescript military transport with a handful of aides, including 35-year-old advisor Natalie Harp.
Marco Rubio and the rest of the staff flew home on Air Force One without being told. Five weeks later, Karoline Leavitt resigned to spend more time with her family.
CJ opens with the Athenian expedition to Sicily, the subject of his new Dangerous History Podcast series, and why the pro-war speeches of 415 BC sound like Dick Cheney in 2003.
00:00 CJ's "Mad Dream of Conquest" and the Athenian neocons
04:10 "Greeted as liberators," 2,400 years running
09:07 The Axios tanker claim vs. the Brent crude chart
11:08 Why ship count is the wrong metric: draft, size, and the Oman route
15:07 Iran can touch any ship in the strait. The US can't stop it.
17:37 Trump threatens China; China has been propping up the oil market
19:20 The Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the salt cavern problem
23:24 Artificial prices, broken rationing, and the winter heating season
27:34 Energy shocks and global instability
33:05 There was never an upside: $200B, 16 dead, $40 trillion in debt
35:39 Why Trump won't declare a fake victory and leave
40:09 July 8: the Air Force One "threat" and the food cart escape
45:30 Karoline Leavitt resigns five weeks later
47:24 Natalie Harp and the cult psychology around Trump
57:49 Root yourself in reality
BTNW YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSuSWVH4XXhPkDgQSpzOTog
BTNW Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/brave-the-new-world/id1873380752
BTNW Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2NWeaPtUecF4m7GS7OClUo
Matt Carano X: https://x.com/matthewcarano
CJ Killmer X: https://x.com/KillmerCj
Dangerous History Podcast: https://www.patreon.com/profcj
