Howard Marks in conversation about market cycles, investor psychology, and where the current market sits on the swing from optimism to fear. He works through three of his memos, explaining why cognitive dissonance lets markets ignore bad news until a critical mass of it arrives, why waiting for the bottom is the wrong question, and how Oaktree came to invest four hundred and fifty million dollars a week in the weeks after Lehman failed. He also revisits the growth versus value divide he now thinks is a false one, argues that selling should be treated as a decision to un-buy, and uses Amazon and the Nifty Fifty to show how much money is lost by getting off a good idea too soon. The conversation closes with the tennis analogy behind his whole philosophy, and why avoiding losers works in credit but not everywhere.
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