Robert Pape | Iran and political violence

The New York Times on Sunday, October 25, reports that Washington and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran, potentially targeting its energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile capabilities. The prospect of further military action comes as the American naval blockade, sanctions and the damage from previous fighting intensify pressure on Iran’s economy, while Tehran warns that any new attack would provoke a wider retaliation. 

This raises a central strategic question: if the blockade is steadily weakening Iran by restricting its oil exports and draining its revenues, does Washington have an incentive to wait and allow economic pressure to run its course — or might the prospect of a weakened but still defiant regime instead encourage Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu to strike again? 

Meanwhile, America appears to be entering a new era of political violence. Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago and one of the leading scholars of political violence, argues that the danger lies not simply in the actions of extremists, but in the growing acceptance of violence among sections of the wider public. He calls this phenomenon “violent populism”, fuelled by deepening partisan divisions, racial anxieties and the capacity of social media to amplify hostility and confer legitimacy on political violence.

With the November midterm elections approaching, Pape warns that a disputed result could trigger a prolonged crisis of political legitimacy, potentially escalating into sustained violence. How seriously should Americans take these warnings? 

What role does Donald Trump play in this increasingly volatile political climate, and how much of the crisis reflects deeper structural changes in American society? We explore the evidence behind Pape’s analysis, the risks facing American democracy and whether political leaders and institutions can prevent an already polarised country from descending further into violence.

Robert Pape is professor of political science at the University of Chicago and author of Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism.