President Donald Trump is seeking to revive his personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un while substantially reducing US military exercises with South Korea. What does this mean for the future of the US–South Korean alliance -- and for deterrence on the Korean Peninsula?
But the stakes extend far beyond the Korean Peninsula. The war with Iran has raised fresh questions about whether the US is becoming overstretched militarily, particularly as Washington shifts resources towards the Middle East while asking its Asian allies to shoulder more of the burden for their own defence.
What does this mean for South Korea, Japan and the wider US security presence in East Asia? Will a perceived weakening of American commitment encourage China to become more assertive around Taiwan and elsewhere? Could Trump’s approach ultimately produce greater burden-sharing among America’s allies, or could it undermine confidence in US leadership and accelerate an arms race across East Asia? And as North Korea’s nuclear arsenal grows and China’s military power expands, what should America’s long-term defence posture in the Indo-Pacific look like?
Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, where he researches and writes extensively on international security in the Korean Peninsula and Asia, demographics, and economic development.
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Tom Switzer is a journalist and broadcaster who has been a prolific commentator on politics and international affairs. His writing and commentary have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times (international), The Australian, and across ABC and News24 (formerly Sky News), where he has been a regular presenter and panellist. For 30 years, since 1995, he has worked at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, the London-based Spectator magazine, and the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, which he headed from 2017 to 2025. He is the host of Switzerland, a long-form interview series exploring global politics, modern history, and the ideas shaping the world.
