Ethiopia and Eritrea: How bad could this get?

Ethiopia’s forces have retaken Mekelle — but the fighting in the north is far from over, as regional relationships are also shifting across the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, with Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan renewing ties.

Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills are joined again by ACLED’s Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru to unpack what comes next: the future of the TPLF and TDF, Eritrea’s role in the conflict, Ethiopia’s ambitions for access to the Red Sea, and the growing risk of fighting crossing Ethiopia’s borders.

They look at the wider regional picture, from Egypt and Sudan to Yemen, Somalia, and the Gulf, and ask how a confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea could pull in competing powers across the Red Sea.

Plus: 

• UK security: What the withdrawal of US aircraft from RAF Fairford could tell us about confidence in Britain’s ability to protect critical military infrastructure — and respond to unconventional security threats.
• Iran: With the Strait of Hormuz returning toward normal operations, has Tehran lost one of its biggest sources of leverage — and where does the conflict go from here?
• Saudi Arabia and the Houthis: As Riyadh considers renewed support for forces fighting the Houthis, can a new counter-offensive actually shift the balance in Yemen?

Track the conflict in Ethiopia with ACLED’s latest data at acleddata.com 

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