Brenden pushed blended ROAS from 3 to 6. Three months later revenue was falling, and nobody could explain why.
Stella co-founder Brenden Delarua on incrementality testing, geo holdouts, and why a strong ROAS can hide what actually drives revenue. Brenden spent about 11 years buying paid media before co-founding Stella, a causal measurement platform that runs structured geo holdouts to separate the revenue advertising causes from the revenue it just takes credit for. ROAS and CPL measure correlation, not cause, and optimizing toward them can quietly defund the demand that was funding the account.
In this episode:
The QBR where his record ROAS and the CFO's real numbers said opposite things
What annual revenue you need before a holdout is worth running — $10M D2C, $50M lead gen, $100M B2B
How to act on incrementality before you can run holdouts
Why he put pricing on the website and dropped it until buyers got suspicious
Where AI belongs in measurement, and why a confident answer isn't a validated one
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