Economists are watching key inflation data drop this Wednesday, with the second quarter consumer price index offering a snapshot of household costs — even as oil prices surge due to Middle East tensions. Despite those spikes, most analysts expect the Reserve Bank to hold off on another rate hike this year, citing a cooling job market. The latest inflation figures, however, reflect a period when fuel prices were falling, potentially masking recent spikes. With the RBA governor’s speech tomorrow and the board meeting in two weeks, the economic landscape is shifting fast — housing is cooling, spending is down, and global uncertainty looms. While inflation may stay just under target, rate hikes remain possible in August or November, especially with Middle East tensions rattling global markets and commodity prices.
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