“Markets have no memory. When crisis hits the reasons are swiftly forgotten, and we have to relearn them all again.”
Is a financial crisis coming our way? US Debt, Inflation, Trade, Energy, AI concerns and the rest pushed the revealed wisdom of new Fed Head Kevin Warsh out the limelight last week. Bond yields continue to rise. There are now growing fears of slowdown, or worse. Cheer up! Not the end of the World. But if a financial crisis is coming it will reflect lessons from the past on liquidity, but to solve it we also must acknowledge how much the world has changed since the last one in 2008. This time it will be different!
Key takeaways:
The Fed is moving towards tighter policy
Oil and trade shocks are rising – Warsh did well to iterate his thinking, but the real economy leads markets.
The Fed and Treasury may be pulling different ways – if the market perceives it to be so, confidence will drop.
AI is no longer the key factor driving markets – strong numbers don’t disguise rising doubts.
What happens when US 10-year hits 5%?
What role should China play in a global financial crisis?
I got taken to task by a Morning Porridge reader on Friday morning. He told me my negativity was getting repetitive and overly cynical. These may be fair comments… I shall take note – but I won’t want to change the style. I will keep telling it is as I see it. Other market commentators are available – although, to be fair… I am not reading much positivity elsewhere.
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