“Turns out you didn’t need a war to destroy the economy…”
19 months of Donald J Trump have been extraordinary – the unravelling of alliances, the forever war with Iran, and the belated discovery that financial clout doesn’t translate into geopolitical power. While the Mid-terms may make Trump a lame-duck, the consequences of Trump will hamstring the USA for decades and colour a new economic reality.
Key Takeaways
Markets are making a mistake if they think Trump is just a temporary noise and aberration. The consequences of the Trump era could take decades to correct and will be very significant on the dollar order of markets.
Trump has squandered American’s real global strength – its alliances. From the Gulf, The China Seas, to Europe, nations are now uncertain of America’s reliability and credibility.
Half of America’s ambassadorial posts are vacant. Many others have been filled with presidential cronies.
Financial supremacy is not the same as industrial supremacy – dollars can’t be turned into skilled labour, new ships, planes, tanks or missiles overnight.
China has time on its side. Its’ proxies: Iran, Russia and North Korea, can force America to consume war stocks at rates it can’t replace. China wins if America is exhausted before it has to do anything.
Yesterday was an interesting one for Trump watchers. The American President pulled the USA out of planned military exercises with South Korea – citing his great relationship with Kim the Plump of North Korea. Then he threatened to bomb Oman if it gets in the way of his deal with Iran. What deal?
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