“Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men.”
The Russians are masters of Maskirovka, the art of distraction, disinformation and misdirection. After sabotaging the transatlantic economy, the next stage is to destabilise Europe and break its resilience by fermenting social unrest, political conflict, and riots. The current waves of protest are likely to erupt across Europe with the potential of triggering a bond crisis, are deliberate and part of a hostile plan to remove Europe from the board.
Key Takeaways:
A European Sovereign Bond Crisis is a rising risk as riots hit market confidence and cause rates to rise and growth to stall.
Genuine social grievances leave Europe vulnerable to Russian manipulation and misdirection – seeking to undermine European unity, diminish support for Ukraine and rearmament, and further split NATO.
Russia is indifferent exploing Hard Right and Hard Left grievances to achieve its destabilisation goals. Immigration or Palestine are divisive topics which ferment dispute and conflict.
How European Governments counter the deliberate destabilisation is critical, and given the vulnerabilities of Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK to populist parties, will be difficult.
If a bond market crisis emerges, the ECB could face distracted European politics and could struggle to contain a chaotic bond market where yields rise and confidence breaks down.
The social cohesion of Europe is under threat – and that’s the economic asset that underlies the Euro and the European polity. A crisis will impact European markets, growth, inflation and further fuel political instability.
Anyone spotting bond yields across Europe spiked higher yesterday in the wake of the French riots gets a No Sh*t Sherlock award. There are ongoing riots in Albania, unrest and looting in Italy, and it looks like Spain is set for violent protest ahead of next month’s snap elections… The big question in London: how soon before copy-cat riots hit the streets of Blighty?
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