Gold's $6,000 target is off the table and Kitco technical analyst Gary Wagner has put a new number in its place. Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com, lowered his own $6,000 call on this show a month ago. He returns with $5,000 to $5,100 on the high side before the end of the year, and says the correction that took gold under $4,000 is finished.
"We definitely hit a bottom," Wagner tells Kitco News anchor Jeremy Szafron, pointing to a six week base that broke out in the first week of August. "And it hasn't looked back since." Wagner maps the gold price levels that decide it from here. He puts major support at $4,200, short term support around $4,350, and Fibonacci resistance at $4,644, with $4,500 as the next challenge on the way up.
On the pattern itself, Wagner says the chart set up as a descending top with a flat bottom, a formation that usually breaks lower inside a downtrend. It broke higher instead, and in his words it did so "really with fury." He also flags a signal that has stopped working after four decades of reading these markets. "The one that used to work that doesn't seem to have the same punch is wars or geopolitical uncertainty," Wagner says. "The US went to war with Iran and gold went down, silver went down." On the Fed, Wagner is anticipating a quarter point rate hike in September and possibly half a point in total by year end, and argues that is not as hawkish as the market has been treating it heading into Jackson Hole.
Asked how he is positioned, Wagner says he has spent roughly the last ten months accumulating physical metal for storage rather than trading it, having bought at $1,500 and again at $2,000 and held both. He has traded futures since 1990. Silver's outperformance, the gold to silver ratio, summer liquidity in the gold market, moving averages, rising long yields and what a hawkish surprise would do to $4,500 gold are all covered.
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Recorded August 17th 2026
CHAPTERS
00:00 Revisiting the $6,000 Gold Call
00:53 Fed Hike Odds Cut in Half
01:45 Wagner's New Gold Targets
03:53 The Bottoming Pattern That Broke Out
06:58 The Resistance and Support Roadmap
09:40 Moving Averages and Rising Yields
10:44 Volume and Summer Liquidity
12:28 For Those Who Bought the Top
17:45 Silver's Surge and the Gold-Silver Ratio
21:01 Why He's Buying Physical Instead Of Trading It
25:27 Why War Stopped Moving Gold
28:25 Jackson Hole and the Hawkish Risk
30:21 Final Levels and Wrap-Up
#gold #goldprice #kitconews #silver #silverprice #preciousmetals
#goldforecast #garywagner #goldprice2026 #goldsilverratio
#technicalanalysis #fed #jacksonhole #investing #kitco
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Disclaimer:
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.
