Rate-Hike Odds Went From 48% to 88% in One Month | This WeeK

The Federal Reserve decides Wednesday. On Friday the market put a rate hike at roughly 88%, and a cut at zero. It would be the first increase since July 2023.

Over nine days, three guests sat down with Jeremy Szafron and made the case that higher rates are a problem the debt can't carry. Ran Neuner on September 3, Brien Lundin on Tuesday September 8, and Ron Paul on September 9.

Neuner argued the inflation is a supply shock from the war and that rates are the wrong tool for it, while saying he wasn't ruling a hike out. Lundin argued a sustained campaign of rate hikes cannot be afforded, with debt service already running above national defense. Ron Paul argued the debt and malinvestment have to be liquidated eventually, and that there is no painless way to get there.

Friday's CPI came in at 0.4% for the month and 3.4% on the year, with core at 0.3%, hotter than the 0.2% economists expected. That's the Labor Department.

Recorded Sept 13 2026

Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (https://twitter.com/JeremySzafron)
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00:00 The Fed Decides Wednesday
00:50 Ran Neuner: Rates Are the Wrong Tool for an Oil Shock
02:15 Brien Lundin: A Rate Hike Campaign Can't Be Afforded
03:40 Ron Paul: The Liquidation Is Coming Either Way
04:45 The Case for a Hike and What to Watch Wednesday


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The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.