A soldier accused of making $400K on Polymarket using Venezuela-related insider info is at the center of a high-stakes legal battle, as the CFTC tries to intervene in his criminal case—his lawyers call them a “wolf” sneaking in through the back door. The CFTC wants to file a court brief, but Van Dyke’s team argues it’s a legal overreach since their civil case is on hold. The core dispute? Whether prediction market contracts count as “swaps” under CFTC rules. Van Dyke pleads not guilty, with trial looming late next year. This case could reshape how regulators view emerging prediction markets—and whether they’re vulnerable to manipulation.
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