Prisons in England and Wales are bursting at the seams—with over 86,000 inmates nearing full capacity—and the government’s scrambling to fix it. A controversial early release plan, originally meant to free some non-violent offenders after serving just a third of their sentences, is now being tightened: those convicted of rape or serious child sex offenses will be permanently excluded starting October. Despite this, the plan still offers relief for others. The problem? Sentences have grown longer since the 90s—robbery sentences alone are now over a year longer than in 2012—while new prison construction has lagged painfully behind. With crime rates falling but incarceration soaring, early releases may remain the government’s only viable short-term fix.
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