When the US began bombing Iran back in February, Iran's response was swift: close the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows. America has since added its own blockade on top of that, reducing traffic through this artery of global trade to a trickle. At the time, economists warned this could lead to global economic meltdown, but three months later, things feel surprisingly normal. But, three months on, life has largely carried on: petrol is more expensive, energy bills are up, but there's been no economic meltdown. So have we dodged the bullet?
Not quite, says economist David Lubin. Deep Dive Host Chris Pleasance is joined by the Chatham House senior research fellow to explain why the real pain is still coming, and why the UK is especially vulnerable. From rising bond yields and interest rate hikes to the spectre of fuel rationing, tax rises, and a potential US stock market crash, Lubin maps out what happens if America and Iran fail to do a deal - and why the longer the strait stays shut, the worse the shock will be to the global economy.
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