Maple, one of the sharpest minds in sports prediction markets, to break down how he actually makes money trading sports. From his early days exploiting sportsbook promos and same-game parlays, to originating his own numbers, going all-in on sweepstakes exchanges, and navigating platforms like Novig, Kalshi, and ProfitX, Maple walks through the real mechanics behind winning — and why most people misunderstand them. We dive deep into fees, liquidity, adverse selection, combos vs parlays, and where prediction markets are headed over the next few years.

Chapters

  • (00:00:00) - Louis on Predictive Programming
  • (00:00:49) - LeBron on His NBA Parlay
  • (00:02:18) - Did You Ever Recreationally Bet Sports?
  • (00:04:44) - Capping on DraftKings's Golden Age
  • (00:06:11) - SportsLine: When Should You Parlay?
  • (00:09:07) - In the Elevator With Rich People
  • (00:10:11) - Jan Novig on Profit X Sweepstakes
  • (00:12:19) - Lone Wolf on NBA Sweepstakes
  • (00:18:29) - Is Kalshi increasing their fees?
  • (00:20:10) - Kalshi: If We're Going to Increase Fees,
  • (00:24:28) - Will Kalshi Replace FanDuel?
  • (00:28:46) - Steve Kalshi on the Supreme Court's Sportsbook Cases
  • (00:31:33) - Predicting Markets: The Stupid Trade
  • (00:32:33) - Sportsbooks on Combo Parlays
  • (00:36:07) - What's the Long Term Hold on Parlays?
  • (00:38:42) - Kalsha: Will I Never Get Limited on Prediction Markets?

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