Neil Woodford on the war the market refuses to price. Missiles are hitting the Gulf, America is back at war, and the S&P 500 finished the week up 1%. The institutions that modelled this conflict predicted catastrophe. The market looked at the same war and said no. One of them is wrong.
Jon and Neil unpack the biggest forecasting failure since Brexit: how the IEA, the Bank of England and the EIA all got the oil shock wrong, and how the market repriced the war line by line while the models stood still. Neil explains why complex economic models fail structurally, what he uses instead (one number, no model), and the scenarios that would prove him wrong, from a Bank of England rate rise to the closure of a second strait.
🔗 Links & Resources
Read Neil's companion piece, Truth Is Ever to Be Found in Simplicity:
About The Noise Cancelling Podcast
Neil Woodford and Jon Adair cut through financial noise: what moved, what it means, and what would change their minds.
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