18 Years of Fantasy Football Taught Me How to Buy Cards

What do 18 years of fantasy football tell us about sports cards markets?

This episode maps the five phases of dynasty fantasy football onto sports card and TCG investing. 

The core argument: most people think you win in the accumulation phase. You don't. You win in the two phases before it, and the two after.

Covered in this episode:

• The running back age cliff as a model for card value curves
• Hype as opium: why "best shape of his life" and "this player's team is going to be good" are the same worthless signal
• Jonathan Taylor vs Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and what that trade teaches about buying undervalued assets
• Why Messi cards will not go 2-3x on a World Cup win (10-20% bump, then a fade)
• Cash flow management and why stale inventory is locked capital
• The three things championship teams actually do

You cannot manage what you have not measured.

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