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The USDA released its July crop production report on July 10th. The wheat number is the one I've been watching all season — and on Thursday, it was officially confirmed.
Total US wheat production for 2026: 1.536 billion bushels. The lowest since 1970. That is 56 years.
Winter wheat — the class that makes your bread flour and all-purpose flour — came in at 990 million bushels. Down 29% from last year. Hard Red Winter wheat, which is specifically the bread wheat grown across Kansas and the Southern Plains, is the smallest crop since 1958.
Today I'm breaking down what this means for your pantry — flour, bread, pasta, crackers, cereal, and the downstream effects on feed grain costs — and what the summer window you're in right now means for what to do before the farm-to-retail lag brings these numbers to your grocery shelf.
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