The Texas Senate race is heating up as Democrat James Talarico narrows the gap with Republican Ken Paxton, even outpacing Beto ORourke’s 2018 surge. But don’t trust polls at face value—sponsorship, sample size, voter eligibility, and margin of error all shape the results. The current tracker blends recent polls by weight, but early shifts can still flip the script. This isn’t destiny—it’s data in motion.
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