The Fed braces for a pivotal moment as inflation stubbornly clings to 3% despite cooling rent prices and falling gas costs—yet Middle East tensions and AI-driven supply chain surges threaten to reignite price spikes. Chair Warsh vows “no tolerance” for inflation, but markets demand action; board members like Waller warn of imminent rate hikes if core inflation persists. While some officials see signs of peak inflation, others argue the Fed must act decisively—or risk letting inflation spiral further, especially as war-driven supply shocks undermine rate-driven demand solutions.
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